A combination of challenges on U.S. farms has pushed turkey prices higher as the calendar nears Thanksgiving, with wholesale prices up about 40 percent.

American Farm Bureau Federation economist Bernt Nelson pointed to economic challenges and increased disease pressure as the leading causes in a recent Market Intel analysis.

“Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza has had a major impact on the turkey industry, affecting about 18.7 million turkeys and accounting for 10 percent of all birds affected by the virus since 2022. This includes 2.2 million turkeys affected so far in 2025,” he said on Oct. 1.

The next day, USDA confirmed another 42,000 turkeys were impacted by HPAI on a commercial turkey farm in Calhoun County, Iowa. With fall waterfowl migration in full swing, the industry faces the likelihood of additional HPAI cases in coming weeks.

Avian Metapneumovirus is also infecting turkey flocks and while it is far less fatal than HPAI, it threatens future production.

“One of the greatest impacts of AMPV is a reduction in egg sets for breeders producing the next generation of turkeys to replace losses from HPAI,” Nelson said. “Breeders face a tough road with the risk of egg-laying birds becoming infected with either HPAI, AMPV or both.”

The intensity of the two diseases is causing contraction in the nation’s turkey flock.

As of Sept. 26, USDA estimated turkey production this year could total 195 million birds, which is down 3 percent from 2024 and marks the lowest estimate in 40 years. The agency predicts total 2025 turkey production will be 4.84 billion pounds, down 1.8 billion pounds, or 5 percent, from 2024 and down 11 percent from nearly 5.5 billion pounds in 2023.

But Nelson said even though turkey supplies are lower than historical averages, demand is also down 12 percent over the past decade, so there will be plenty of turkey for the holiday season.

USDA recently predicted the 2025 national average composite wholesale price for a frozen whole hen turkey will be $1.32 per pound, up 38 cents per pound, or 40 percent, from the 2024 average price of 94 cents.

“It’s important to remember prices are still 32 percent lower than just three years ago,” Nelson said. “These production challenges shouldn’t have any impact on consumers’ ability to get turkey, but they may translate to higher retail prices this holiday season.”

This story was distributed through a cooperative project between the Illinois Farm Bureau and Illinois Press Association. For more food and farming news, visit FarmWeekNow.com.